Tropical Depression Cosme May Bring Heavy Rains and Surf to Hawaii's Big Island
Residents of the big island of Hawaii are keeping a close eye on Tropical Depression Cosme over the weekend of July 21-22, as it is expected to pass just south. A flash flood watch, high surf advisory, and wind advisory have been posted through Saturday for the big island of Hawaii.
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On Friday, July 20, 2007 at 900 UTC, (2:00 a.m. PDT), the center of Tropical Depression Cosme was located near 16.1 north and 149.1 west. Cosme was moving west at 15 knots (17 mph), and had an estimated minimum central pressure of 1008 millibars. On Monday, July 16, the pressure was 994 millibars, and Cosme was a tropical storm. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Now, Cosme's pressure has risen and the storm has weakened to a tropical depression. Currently, Cosme's maximum sustained winds are around 30 knots (34 mph), with gusts to 40 knots (46 mph).
Flash Flood Watch up for Big Island of Hawaii Through Saturday
On Friday morning at 3:30 a.m. HST, the National Weather Service of Honolulu issued a Flash Flood Watch for the big island of Hawaii, effective through Saturday afternoon, July 21. The watch reads: "The passage of tropical depression Cosme south of the big island is expected to produce heavy rainfall with highest amounts along the east and southeast facing slopes. The initial rainfall will begin later today with the heaviest amounts occurring tonight into early Saturday. The runoff from this heavy rain may produce flash flooding."
According to the National Weather Service, the moisture north of Tropical Depression Cosme is expected to produce heavy rainfall. Totals are expected to be in the 5 to 10 inch range which may be sufficient to produce flash flooding.
High Surf Advisory in Effect for Eastern Shores of Big Island
The National Weather Service has also issued a high surf advisory from the afternoon of Friday, July 20 through Saturday morning, July 21, for east facing shores of the big island. The Advisory reads: "Large waves produced by the strong trade winds north of tropical depression Cosme will arrive along the east facing shores on the big island of Hawaii later today (7/20) and tonight. These waves combined with increasing local winds will result in rough and choppy surf along the affected shorelines.
A high surf advisory means that waves will be higher than usual. Stay out of the water and well away from the shore break to avoid the hazardous waves and strong rip currents."
Wind Advisory and Small Craft Advisories In Effect
The National Weather Service has also posted a Wind Advisory for the summits of Haleakala Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The advisory notes that east winds will increase over higher elevations of Maui and the Big Island this evening as Cosme passes south of the Big Island. The advisory may need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning if winds are expected to reach the 45 mph threshold tonight. Other windy areas of the big island may need to have a Wind Advisory issued if winds are expected to increase to 30 mph tonight. Small Craft Advisories are also up through Saturday, July 21 at 6:00 p.m. HST for these areas: Big Island Southeast Waters; Big Island Leeward Waters; Alenuihaha Channel; Pailolo Channel, and Maalaea Bay.
Where is Cosme Headed?
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii has now taken over the forecasting for Tropical Depression Cosme as the storm is now in the Central Pacific Ocean. The discussion from the CPHC noted on Friday, July 20, 2007, that strong high pressure in the low levels of that atmosphere, located north of the storm's path has led forecasters to project a more westward track for Cosme. That means Cosme will move slightly further away than previously expected from the big island of Hawaii by tomorrow (Sat. July 21) night.
Weaken or Strengthen?
The forecast discussion notes that there are two things that will affect whether Cosme weakens or strengthens. Shearing winds (winds that help tear the storm apart) from the north will affect the storm once it gets west of 150 degrees west longitude. However, because Cosme is moving into warmer waters (80 degree Fahrenheit waters help power storms), it may make it to minimum tropical storm levels. The CPHC is keeping an eye on the storm as it continues moving westward.
For updates over the weekend on Cosme, please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at:
For the local Hawaii forecast including updates to watches and warnings, please visit:
Storm summary credit: Rob Gutro (derived from NWS reports)/Goddard Space Flight Center
For more information on the 2007 hurricane season to date, click here.